A non-invasive diagnostic nomogram for CHB-related early cirrhosis: a prospective study

This study aimed to construct a non-invasive diagnostic nomogram based on high-frequency ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging results for early liver cirrhosis patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) which cannot be detected by conventional non-invasive examination methods but can only be diagnosed through invasive liver puncture for pathological examination. 72 patients with CHB were enrolled in this prospective study, and divided into S4 stage of liver cirrhosis and S0-S3 stage of non-liver cirrhosis according to pathological findings. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors, and a diagnostic nomogram was constructed for CHB-related early cirrhosis. It was validated and calibrated by bootstrap self-extraction. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR 1.14, 95% CI (1.04–1.27)), right hepatic vein diameter (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23–0.82), presence or absence of nodules (OR 31.98, 95% CI 3.84–266.08), and hepatic parenchymal echogenicity grading (OR 12.82, 95% CI 2.12–77.51) were identified as independent predictive indicators. The nomogram based on the 4 factors above showed good performance, with a sensitivity and specificity of 90.70% and 89.66%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction model was 0.96, and the predictive model showed better predictive performance than APRI score (AUC 0.57), FIB-4 score (AUC 0.64), INPR score (AUC 0.63), and LSM score (AUC 0.67). The calibration curve of the prediction model fit well with the ideal curve, and the decision curve analysis showed that the net benefit of the model was significant. The nomogram in this study can detect liver cirrhosis in most CHB patients without liver biopsy, providing a direct, fast, and accurate practical diagnostic tool for clinical doctors.