Dynamic Evaluation of the Effect of Soil Analysis on Monocultures

Soil stands as one of the principal resources for agricultural development, with this activity encompassing approximately 38% of the Earth’s surface. The resulting product is directed towards human consumption and animal feed, as well as energy crops, among other purposes. Given the pivotal role of this activity and the escalating demand for its products within the economic sphere, coupled with population growth, the need arises not only for increased crop yield but also for addressing the per capita reduction in available land. Consequently, an imperative arises to explore emerging alternatives for soil conservation and restoration in pursuit of this goal. Thus, a dynamic system model is introduced to assess the patterns of land use for agricultural cultivation in Colombia. Modelling is a useful tool for system conceptualisation, understanding, projection of future scenarios and hypothesis testing about the impact of disruptions in a system’s overall behaviour about changes in its components. The main purpose of this article is to evaluate, through simulation with system dynamics, soil recovery scenarios from the use of residues from the same crops, specifically in the case of monocultures, such as sugarcane. Similar studies have not been found in the literature review and, therefore, this work is novel and establishes a starting point to continue exploring these soil recovery alternatives. The formulation of this model was accomplished through the utilization of the Vensim DSS software (Version 5.10a), followed by simulations of various land use scenarios across two distinct types of crops. The outcomes of these simulations unveiled a gradual degradation of the soil. To counter this trend, scenarios were evaluated, with composting emerging as a viable and significant alternative. There are some scenarios in which land degradation is lower by more than 50% compared with those in which the alternative is not considered. The composting process reduces costs in terms of fertilization, labour and support for environmental enhancement by restoring physical, chemical and biological soil properties. This study proposes for this model to be extended to other agricultural chains, thereby demonstrating its potential for guiding decisions regarding land use and crop activity scheduling that share similarities with the system under investigation.