Development of risk-score model in patients with negative surgical margin after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy

A total of 739 patients underwent RARP as initial treatment for PCa from November 2011 to October 2018. Data on BCR status, clinical and pathological parameters were collected from the clinical records. After excluding cases with neoadjuvant and/or adjuvant therapies, presence of lymph node or distant metastasis, and positive SM, a total of 537 cases were eligible for the final analysis. The median follow-up of experimental cohort was 28.0 (interquartile: 18.0–43.0) months. We identified the presence of International Society of Urological Pathology grade group (ISUP-GG) ≥ 4 (Hazard ratio (HR) 3.20, 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI) 1.70–6.03, P 20 mm (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.01–3.70, P = 0.047) as significant factors of BCR in the multivariate analysis. We further developed a risk model according to these factors. Based on this model, 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year BCR-free survival were 100%, 98.9%, 98.9% in the low-risk group; 99.1%, 94.1%, 86.5% in the intermediate-risk group; 93.9%, 84.6%, 58.1% in the high-risk group. Internal validation using the bootstrap method showed a c-index of 0.742 and an optimism-corrected c-index level of 0.731. External validation was also carried out using an integrated database derived from 3 other independent institutions including a total of 387 patients for the final analysis. External validation showed a c-index of 0.655. In conclusion, we identified risk factors of biochemical failure in patients showing negative surgical margin after RARP and further developed a risk model using these risk factors.