Prevalence characteristics of pertussis from 2010 to 2022 and its projected incidence in Hangzhou city

ObjectiveTo analyze the prevalence of pertussis in Hangzhou city from 2010 to 2022 and predict its incidence rate using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, with the goal of improving prevention and control measures. MethodsThe reported pertussis incidence data and population data of Hangzhou city from 2010 to 2022 were collected through the infectious disease surveillance system in the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and the Statistical Yearbooks published by the Hangzhou Statistics Bureau (http://tjj.hangzhou.gov.cn/), respectively, to analyze the epidemiological characteristics. The collected data was used to construct an ARIMA model for predicting pertussis incidence rates in the city for 2023 and 2024. ResultsA total of 2 484 pertussis cases were reported in Hangzhou city over a 13-year period, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.03 : 1 and an average annual incidence rate of 2.49 per 100 000 population. The majority of pertussis cases occurred during the summ