Timescales of water accumulation in magmas and implications for short warning times of explosive eruptions

Water plays a key role in magma genesis, differentiation, ascent and, finally, eruption. Despite the recognized crucial function of water, there are still several issues that continue to blur our view about its role in magmatic systems. What are the timescales of H 2 O accumulation in crystallizing magmas? What are the ascent rates of water-rich residual melts leading to explosive eruptions? Here, we track the timescale of water accumulation in a residual melt resulting from crystallization of a hydrous CO 2 -bearing magmatic mass stored at mid- to deep-crustal levels in a subduction-related geodynamic setting. Our results indicate that, after a repose period ranging from few to several thousand years, water-rich melts with water concentrations larger than 6–9 wt.% can migrate towards the Earth surface in very short timescales, on the order of days or even hours, possibly triggering explosive eruptions with short warning times and devoid of long-term geophysical precursors. Volatiles such as water play a key role in magma ascent and ultimately triggering explosive eruptions. Here, the authors show that water-rich melts with water concentrations of 6–9 wt.% can ascend rapidly to the surface over the timescales of hours to days with very short warning times.