A single-center prognotic analysis of breast ductal carcinoma in situ

Background and purpose: The incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) has increased annually with the popularity of mammography screening. However, current treatment strategies are mostly based on the results of prospective randomized clinical trials in western countries. This study aimed to explore the clinical characteristics, recurrence patterns and prognostic factors of Chinese DCIS patients, hoping to optimize clinical decision-making. Methods: Medical records of 1 185 DCIS patients treated in Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center from January 2008 to January 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. The local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) rate, disease-free survival (DFS) rate and overall survival (OS) rate were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the COX proportional hazards regression model. Results: With a median follow-up of 61 months, 50 treatment failure events were observed, including 16 locoregional recurrences, 30 contralateral breast cancer events and 4 distant metastases. The 5-year OS rate, LRFS rate and DFS rate were 99.9%, 98.7% and 96.6%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, the positive status of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) was related to higher risk of local recurrence and the LRFS rate was poor (P=0.029). Conclusion: The patient with DCIS was associated with favorable prognosis. HER2 positivity was the risk factor for poor LRFS.