Evaluation of two hydrometeorological ensemble strategies for flash-flood forecasting over a catchment of the eastern Pyrenees

This study aims at evaluating the performances of flash-flood forecasts issued from deterministic and ensemble meteorological prognostic systems. The hydrometeorological modeling chain includes the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forcing the rainfall-runoff model MARINE dedicated to flash floods. Two distinct ensemble prediction systems accounting for (i) perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions of the meteorological state and (ii) mesoscale model physical parameterizations have been implemented on the Agly catchment of the eastern Pyrenees with three subcatchments exhibiting different rainfall regimes.