Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease

Highlights • We revisited data from the first known Ebola outbreak in Zaire in 1976. • Using a mathematical model, we estimated transmission rates in different settings. • Analysis suggests the person-to-person R0 was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92–2.11). • Epidemiological conditions in 1976 could have generate...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Epidemics 2014-12, Vol.9 (C), p.70-78
Hauptverfasser:	Camacho, A, Kucharski, A.J, Funk, S, Breman, J, Piot, P, Edmunds, W.J
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	1976 Zaire outbreak Algorithms Basic reproduction number Bayes Theorem Community-Acquired Infections - epidemiology Cross Infection - epidemiology Democratic Republic of the Congo - epidemiology Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - epidemiology Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - transmission Humans Infectious Disease Internal Medicine Mathematical model Models, Statistical Models, Theoretical
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:	Highlights • We revisited data from the first known Ebola outbreak in Zaire in 1976. • Using a mathematical model, we estimated transmission rates in different settings. • Analysis suggests the person-to-person R0 was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92–2.11). • Epidemiological conditions in 1976 could have generated a larger outbreak.
ISSN:	1755-4365 1878-0067
DOI:	10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.003