From rally to reality: unveiling long-term dynamics in political trust over two years of COVID-19 in Germany

Crises like wars, terrorist attacks, and economic or health crises are frequently followed by profound changes in political trust. Whereas immediate external threats often induce a strong initial increase in political trust, the ‘rally-around-the-flag’ effect, prolonged crises are more detrimental to this core feature of political support. We extend previous research on political trust during extended crises by using the case of the global Covid-19 pandemic. Employing individual-level panel data from Germany (N = 21,001, 2017–2022) and district-level data on infection rates and government-imposed restrictions, we distinguish time trends from both government action and crisis severity for various government and non-government actors such as media or corporations. Results from fixed-effects regression models reveal a prolonged increase in individual-level political trust throughout 2020 and early 2021, followed by a significant decline in 2021/22. Contrary to extant work, we find limited influence of infection rates, whereas more stringent government policies explain decreasing trust later in the pandemic. These results are robust to including individual-level pandemic experiences like changes in work and family life. Thus, our results provide first evidence on the longevity of the initial rally effect in a high-trust country, which remains discernible at least one year into the pandemic.