Potential effects of climate changes on evaporation from a temperate deep lake

•Radiative effects on lake evaporation are two/five times larger than temperature effect.•Atmospheric radiation is dominant for evaporation under warming/cooling climate.•Dilatory thermal-reaction of water temperature characterizes seasonal evaporation.•Seasonal temperature dependency of vapor pressure characterizes annual evaporation.•Results are compared for lakes located between 30°N−45°N worldwide. Lake Ikeda, Japan. Few previous studies on the contribution of meteorological factors to lake evaporation (E) have been conducted with comprehensive analyses of lake surface temperature (Ts) under different climate scenarios. This study aimed to compute and compare the sensitivities of monthly and annual E to changes in solar (Rs) and atmospheric radiation (Ra), air temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (u) under two climate scenarios through a 36-year numerical simulation for Lake Ikeda. Where climate shifted unidirectionally, Rs and Ra were the greatest driving forces for E. The mean contributions of Rs and Ra to annual E change were approximated to be 2.4- and 5.4-times larger than that of Ta (or RH), respectively. Thus, under warming or cooling condition around the lake, Ra working with Ta was dominant for E. In contrast, considering seasonal climate variability, a remarkable effect of the seasonal variability in Ta on E, indicating negative correlation, was estimated. E changes were characterized by the dilatory thermal-reaction of Ts, enhanced by the seasonal switching effect of heat conduction between the lake and atmosphere, and seasonal temperature dependency of vapor pressure. The driving factors of E and Ts, correlations between E and meteorological factors, and variabilities of meteorological factors were compared and summarized for lakes located between 30°N−45°N worldwide.