Comprehensive comparison and assessment of three models evaluating water resource carrying capacity in Beijing, China

•Evaluate sustainable development of water resources by Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC).•From starting points of WRCC’s internal theory and divides mainstream evaluation methods into three types.•Among logistic, topsis and five-element subtraction set pair potential, the last has higher accuracy.•Results consistent with Beijing's WRCC and reflect indicator status to a certain extent. Water supply is one of the most critical factors for food security in many parts of the world, and the balance of water supply and demand ensures the sustainability of water resources. The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) can effectively evaluate the state of sustainable development of water resources. Taking Beijing, which is severely lacking in water resources, as an example, the five-element subtraction set pair potential, logistic, and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution evaluation models (TOPSIS) were comprehensively compared and assessed to identify a more suitable method for water resource assessment. The results indicate that Beijing's WRCC score substantially improved from 2010 to 2018. The overall WRCC of Beijing has improved from the perspective of the carrying subject subsystem, and this has been particularly evident since 2014. The change of quantity and quality index in the quantity-quality-water bodies-flow index layer was the main reason for the increase in Beijing's WRCC. The South-to-North Water Transfer Project had a major impact on the changes in the quantity and quality index layers, which was reflected most distinctly in the measures of per capita water resources and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) emissions per 10,000 yuan. From the perspective of carrying object, Beijing’s carrying capacity has improved significantly since 2013. In terms of utilization and social development, water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP and the proportion of tertiary industry are important factors affecting WRCC. Of the evaluation results of the three models, the results of the five-element subtraction set pairing evaluation model exhibited the highest accuracy. The results may also reflect the indicator status to a certain extent, and the results were more consistent with Beijing's WRCC. This study accurately identified the advantages and disadvantages of various indicators of WRCC by comparing different models and provided a reference for the formulation of Beijing's regulation measures for the sustainable development of water reso