Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1‐CISM2.1

The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is now losing mass at a rate of 0.7 mm of sea level rise (SLR) per year. Here we explore future GrIS evolution and interactions with global and regional climate under high greenhouse gas forcing with the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1), which includes an interactive ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model v2.1 [CISM2.1]) and an advanced energy balance‐based calculation of surface melt. We run an idealized 350‐year scenario in which atmospheric CO2 concentration increases by 1% annually until reaching four times pre‐industrial values at year 140, after which it is held fixed. The global mean temperature increases by 5.2 and 8.5 K by years 131–150 and 331–350, respectively. The projected GrIS contribution to global mean SLR is 107 mm by year 150 and 1,140 mm by year 350. The rate of SLR increases from 2 mm yr−1 at year 150 to almost 7 mm yr−1 by year 350. The accelerated mass loss is caused by rapidly increasing surface melt as the ablation area expands, with associated albedo feedback and increased sensible and latent heat fluxes. This acceleration occurs for a global warming of approximately 4.2 K with respect to pre‐industrial and is in part explained by the quasi‐parabolic shape of the ice sheet, which favors rapid expansion of the ablation area as it approaches the interior “plateau.” Plain Language Summary Observations show that the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate over the last few decades and is currently one of the main contributors to global sea level rise. To understand the causes of GrIS mass loss, we must consider the Earth system as a whole. This study uses an Earth system model with an interactive GrIS model to explore (1) the extent to which the GrIS responds to warming and (2) the main processes that govern this response. The model is forced with an idealized greenhouse gas scenario in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases by 1% per year until reaching four times the pre‐industrial level; the CO2 concentration is then kept constant for another two centuries. The GrIS responds nonlinearly to climate warming. The GrIS contributes about 100 mm of sea level rise by year 150, when CO2 is stabilized and the global mean temperature has increased by 5.2 K. By year 350, when global warming has increased to 8.5 K, the GrIS contributes more than 1 m of additional sea level rise. The accelerated mass loss is mostly driven by summertime warming