Ecological management zoning based on the causation between ecological risk and ecosystem services in the Gaoligong Mountain

[Display omitted] •An ecological management zoning method integrating the causality between LER and ESV is proposed.•The GCCM is employed to analyze the causal relationship between LER and ESV.•LER significantly affects ESV, with the primary causal direction from LER to ESV.•Zones for conservation, early warning, restoration, and revitalization were defined. Ecological management zoning is crucial for advancing regional ecological conservation and sustainable management. Previous studies have highlighted the perspectives of Landscape Ecological Risk (LER) and Ecosystem Services Value (ESV) in delineating ecological management zones, however, their causal relationship has received limited attention. This study addresses this gap by proposing an innovative ecological management zoning method that integrates the causality between LER and ESV, demonstrated through a case study in the Gaoligong Mountain Region (GMR), China. The spatial and causal relationships between LER and ESV were analyzed using Bivariate Spatial Autocorrelation (BSA) and the Geographically Convergent Cross-mapping Model (GCCM). The findings revealed that: (1) Although there was no significant decreasing trend in LER index, a general shift towards lower risk levels was observed, indicating an overall decline in LER from 2000 to 2020; (2) ESV increased from 2000 to 2020, with high and sub-high value areas increased by 9.3%, while low and sub-low value areas decreased by 8.85%; (3) Both LER and ESV exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. A significant negative spatial correlation between LER and ESV was found, with LER identified as the primary causal factor influencing ESV; (4) Based on these insights, the GMR was divided into conservation, early warning, restoration, and revitalization zones, each with tailored management strategies. The causality analysis conducted in this study offers a deeper understanding of the relationship between LER and ESV. In addition to introducing a causation-based ecological management zoning method, this research offers a scientific foundation for improving ecological protection and promoting sustainable development in the GMR.