Fatigue design sensitivities of large monopile offshore wind turbines

The input for fatigue analyses of offshore wind turbines is typically chosen based on design values provided by design standards. While this provides a straightforward design methodology, the contribution of different input parameters to the uncertainty in the fatigue damage estimates is usually unknown. This knowledge is important to have when improving current designs and methodologies, and the parameters governing the uncertainty is typically found through a sensitivity analysis. Several sensitivity studies have been performed for monopile‐based offshore wind turbines, typically focusing on specific turbines and engineering disciplines. This paper performs a sensitivity study for three monopile‐based offshore wind turbines (5 MW, 10 MW, 15 MW) using parameters from several engineering disciplines. The results show that the fatigue utilization is primarily governed by the uncertainty in the SN curves and fatigue capacity. Following this, the uncertainty in the environmental conditions is the dominating uncertainty, with wind loads becoming increasingly important as turbine size increases. Additionally, the effect of modelling uncertainties is investigated. The wind‐related model uncertainties dominate in the tower top, while uncertainties in the wave and soil models dominate in the tower base and monopile. Designers wanting to reduce the uncertainty in a design are recommended to focus on the environmental conditions, and using as accurate models as possible. All modelling uncertainties are significant, but research should particularly be focused on wave directionality and soil models.