Combined Predictors for the Diagnostic Transition from Acute and Transient Psychotic Disorder to Schizophrenia: A Retrospective Study

Acute and transient psychotic disorder (ATPD), a psychosis frequently diagnosed, can potentially evolve into chronic conditions like schizophrenia (SCZ) and other mental disorders. This study aimed to develop a predictive model based on clinical data to forecast the transition from ATPD to SCZ and to identify the predictive factors. According to the diagnostic criteria issued by the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision (ICD-10), 396 inpatients diagnosed with ATPD were collected in this study. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model was performed using demographic data, clinical characteristics, and inflammatory markers to identify independent predictors for subsequent diagnostic transition (SDT) to SCZ. During the follow-up period, 43.69% (n = 173) of ATPD patients had their diagnoses revised to SCZ. The multivariate Cox regression analysis identified post-treatment monocyte count, post-treatment monocyte/lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and the presence of schizophreniform symptoms as significant predictors for the diagnostic revision. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (TimeROC) analyses were developed. The AUC value at the 5-year follow-up was 0.728 for combined predictors, 0.702 for post-treatment monocyte count, 0.764 for post-treatment MLR, and 0.535 for the presence of schizophreniform symptoms. The combined predictors had good predictive ability for the diagnostic transition from acute and transient psychotic disorder to schizophrenia.