Spatiotemporal Analysis of Active Fires in the Arctic Region during 2001–2019 and a Fire Risk Assessment Model

The increasing frequency of active fires worldwide has caused significant impacts on terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric systems. Polar regions have received little attention due to their sparse populations, but active fires in the Arctic cause carbon losses from peatlands, which affects the global climate system. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on the spatiotemporal variations in active fires in the Arctic and to assess the fire risk. We used MODIS C6 data from 2001 to 2019 and VIIRS V1 data from 2012 to 2019 to analyse the spatiotemporal characteristics of active fires and establish a fire risk assessment model based on logistic regression. The trends in active fire frequency based on MODIS C6 and VIIRS V1 data are consistent. Throughout the Arctic, the fire frequency appears to be fluctuating and overall increasing. Fire occurrence has obvious seasonality, being concentrated in summer (June–August) and highest in July, when lightning is most frequent. The frequency of active fires is related to multiple factors, such as vegetation type, NDVI, elevation, slope, air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and distances from roads and settlements. A risk assessment model was constructed based on logistic regression and found to be accurate. The results are helpful in understanding the risk of fires in the Arctic under climate change and provide a scientific basis for fire prediction and control and for reducing fire-related carbon emissions.