Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China

On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China before the quarantine. Expected COVID-19 risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 large...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Emerging infectious diseases 2020-05, Vol.26 (5), p.1049-1052
Hauptverfasser:	Du, Zhanwei, Wang, Lin, Cauchemez, Simon, Xu, Xiaoke, Wang, Xianwen, Cowling, Benjamin J, Meyers, Lauren Ancel
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	2019-nCoV Betacoronavirus China China - epidemiology Cities Cities and towns coronavirus Coronavirus Infections Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronaviruses COVID-19 Disease Outbreaks Disease transmission Diseases Epidemics epidemiology Estimates Exports Fatalities Forecasting Humans importation Infections Infectious diseases International economic relations Laboratories Mathematics Metropolitan areas Mobility Models, Statistical Novels outbreak Pandemics Pneumonia Pneumonia, Viral Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Public health Public health movements Quarantine Research Letter Respiratory tract diseases Risk Assessment Risk for Transportation of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China SARS-CoV-2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Statistics Stochastic Processes Transportation Transportation industry War stories Wuhan
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:	On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China before the quarantine. Expected COVID-19 risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas.
ISSN:	1080-6040 1080-6059
DOI:	10.3201/eid2605.200146