Intelligent prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACCE) following percutaneous coronary intervention using ANFIS-PSO model

Background This study aimed to use the hybrid method based on an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to predict the long term occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) of patients underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with stent implantation. Method This retrospective cohort study included a total of 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) who underwent PCI in Ekbatan medical center in Hamadan city, Iran, from March 2009 to March 2012. The occurrence and non-occurrence of MACCE, (including death, CABG, stroke, repeat revascularization) were considered as a binary outcome. The predictive performance of ANFIS model for predicting MACCE was compared with ANFIS-PSO and logistic regression. Results During ten years of follow-up, ninety-six patients (43.6%) experienced the MACCE event. By applying multivariate logistic regression, the traditional predictors such as age (OR = 1.05, 95%CI: 1.02-1.09), smoking (OR = 3.53, 95%CI: 1.61-7.75), diabetes (OR = 2.17, 95%CI: 2.05-16.20) and stent length (OR = 3.12, 95%CI: 1.48-6.57) was significantly predicable to MACCE. The ANFIS-PSO model had higher accuracy (89%) compared to the ANFIS (81%) and logistic regression (72%) in the prediction of MACCE. Conclusion The predictive performance of ANFIS-PSO is more efficient than the other models in the prediction of MACCE. It is recommended to use this model for intelligent monitoring, classification of high-risk patients and allocation of necessary medical and health resources based on the needs of these patients. However, the clinical value of these findings should be tested in a larger dataset. Keywords: CABG, Percutaneous coronary intervention, Major adverse cardiac events, Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems, Particle swarm optimization