Impact of mechanical stratigraphy on deformation style and distribution of seismicity in the central External Dinarides: a 2D forward kinematic modelling study

The External Dinarides fold-thrust belt formed during Mid-Eocene–Oligocene times by SW-propagating thrusting from the Internal Dinarides towards the Adriatic foreland. Although previously considered as structurally quite uniform, recent work reported along-strike contrasting deformation styles in two structural domains within this fold-thrust belt. The two areas with very contrasting deformation styles are separated by the N–S-striking dextral Split-Karlovac Fault, a 250 km long, transpressive transfer fault. The southeastern domain is characterized by a thin-skinned SW-vergent nappe stack in contrast to the northwestern domain, where a set of blind, thick-skinned top-SW thrust duplexes prevail underneath the passive NE-vergent backthrusts. To better understand why the External Dinarides underwent such contrasting along-strike deformation, we reconsidered a temporal and spatial along- and across-strike distribution of Paleo-Mesozoic lithofacies to both sides of the Split-Karlovac Fault and estimated the role of mechanical stratigraphy on deformation styles in this part of the fold-thrust belt. Therefore, we constructed a new 2D kinematic forward model in the western backthrust-dominated domain. Our best-fit forward-modelled balanced cross section across the central Velebit Mtn. portrays a 75 km wide triangle zone. This zone took up at least 47 km of shortening during Eo-Oligocene times. It comprises a set of thin-skinned NE-vergent backthrusts detached in the upper Paleozoic atop a SW-vergent thick-skinned antiformal stack detached in the lower Paleozoic Adriatic basement. The NE-vergent backthrusts likely nucleated at lateral facies boundaries related to extensional half grabens that locally formed during Middle Triassic and Late Jurassic passive margin extension. During the Eo-Oligocene folding and thrusting, the selective inversion of inherited Mesozoic half grabens boundary faults into the NE-vergent backthrusts in the northwestern domain led to the observed along-strike changes in the deformation style of the External Dinarides. A seismotectonic analysis of instrumentally recorded earthquakes suggests contrasting seismic behaviour along the central and southern Velebit transects within the northwestern structural domain. The central Velebit Mtn. triangle structure appears to currently accommodate dominantly strike-slip motion, with reverse faulting being confined to east of the Split-Karlovac Fault. In contrast, seismicity along the southern Velebit c