MRI-based radiomics to predict neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy outcomes in locally advanced rectal cancer: A multicenter study

•Pre-treatment MRI images were used to construct a prediction model for pathologic T downstaging in locally advanced rectal cancer.•The prediction model showed good performance in training cohort (AUC 0.842), internal testing cohort (AUC 0.809) and prospective cohort (AUC 0.727).•High-probability group (score > 81.82) had potential benefits from sufficient consolidation chemotherapy. Predicting tumour response would be useful for selecting patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) for organ preservation strategies. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for T downstaging (ypT0-2) in LARC patients after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and to identify those who may benefit from consolidation chemotherapy. cT3-4 LARC patients at three tertiary medical centers from January 2012 to January 2019 were retrospectively included, while a prospective cohort was recruited from June 2021 to March 2022. Eight filter (principal component analysis, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, partial least-squares discriminant analysis, random forest)-classifier (support vector machine, logistic regression) models were established to select radiomic features. A nomogram combining radiomics and significant clinical features was developed and validated by calibration curve and decision curve analysis. Interaction test was conducted to investigate the consolidation chemotherapy benefits. A total of 634 patients were included (426 in training cohort, 174 in testing cohort and 34 in prospective cohort). A radiomic prediction model using partial least-squares discriminant analysis and a support vector machine showed the best performance (AUC: 0.832 [training]; 0.763 [testing]). A nomogram combining radiomics and clinical features showed significantly better prognostic performance (AUC: 0.842 [training]; 0.809 [testing]) than the radiomic model. The model was also tested in the prospective cohort with AUC 0.727. High-probability group (score > 81.82) may have potential benefits from ≥ 4 cycles consolidation chemotherapy (OR: 4.173, 95 % CI: 0.953–18.276, p = 0.058, pinteraction = 0.021). We identified and validated a model based on multicenter pre-treatment radiomics to predict ypT0-2 in cT3-4 LARC patients, which may facilitate individualised treatment decision-making for organ-preservation strategies and consolidation chemotherapy.