Trend Analysis of Gout Burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and Prediction for the Next Ten Years

Background Gout is the most common inflammatory arthritis, which causes great harm to people's health, however, there are limited studies on the trend analysis and prediction of gout burden in China. Objective To analyze the changing trend of gout in China from 1990 to 2019, and predict the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate, incidence rate and prevalence rate of gout in the next 10 years. Methods The indicators of DALYs, incidence, and prevalence of gout in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2019), the annual percentage change (APC) and annual average percentage change (AAPC) of the age-standardized DALYs rate, age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate were calculated using the Joinpoint regression model, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model) was used to predict the age-standardized DALYs rate, age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate in 2020-2029. Results In 1990-2019, the D