Integrating Environmental Covariates into Adaptability and Stability Analyses: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach for Cotton Breeding

Breeding programs rely on genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) to recommend cultivars for specific locations. GEI describes how different genotypes perform under varying environmental conditions. Several methods were proposed to assess adaptability and stability across environments. These methods utilize various statistical approaches like parametric and non-parametric regression, multivariate analysis techniques, and even Bayesian frameworks and artificial intelligence. The accessibility of environmental data through platforms like NASA POWER allows breeders to integrate this information into a breeding process. It has been done by using multi-omics integration models that combine data across various biological levels to create accurate predictive models. In the context of phenotypic adaptability and stability analysis, structural equation modeling (SEM) offers an interesting approach to integrating environmental covariates. This work aimed to propose a novel approach that integrates weather information into adaptability and stability analysis, combining SEM with the established Eberhart and Russell model. Additionally, a user-friendly applet, denoted ECERSEM-AdaptStab, was made available to perform the analysis. This approach utilized data from 12 cotton cultivar trials conducted across two growing seasons at 19 sites. This approach successfully integrated environmental covariates into a phenotypic adaptability and stability analysis of cotton cultivars. Specifically, the genotypes TMG 41 WS, IMA CV 690, DP 555 BGRR, BRS 286 and BRS 369 RF were recommended for favorable environments, while the genotypes TMG 43 WS, IMA 5675 B2RF, IMA 08 WS, NUOPAL, DELTA OPAL, BRS 335, and BRS 368 RF are more suitable for unfavorable environments.