Development of a model for Colletotrichum diseases with calibration for phylogenetic clades on different host plants

Fungi in the genus cause serious pre- and post-harvest losses to several agricultural crops worldwide. Through a systematic literature review, we retrieved the published information on anthracnose diseases on different host plants and developed a mechanistic model incorporating the main stages of the pathogen's life cycle and the effect of weather. The model predicts anthracnose progress during the growing season on the aerial organs of different crops, and was parameterized for seven clades (acutatum, dematium, destructivum, gloeosporioides, graminicola, and orbiculare) and the singleton species, . The model was evaluated for the anthracnose diseases caused by fungi belonging to five clades on six hosts by using data from 17 epidemics that occurred in Italy, the USA, Canada, and Japan. A comparison of observed versus predicted data showed a concordance correlation coefficient of 0.928 and an average distance between real data and the fitted line of 0.044. After further validation, the model could be used to support decision-making for crop protection.