TAKING A SNAPSHOT Discovering Escalation Prone Countries Through Structural Conditions and QCA

TAKING A SNAPSHOT Discovering Escalation Prone Countries Through Structural Conditions and QCA

This paper introduces a method of conflict escalation prediction based on long-term structural conditions, drawn from open sources, and QCA (Qualitative Comparative analysis). The combination of the two components offers a model of prediction, which is comparable to other more sophisticated and reso...

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Veröffentlicht in:Obrana a strategie 2020-12, Vol.20 (2), p.5-22
Hauptverfasser: Kateřina FRIDRICHOVÁ, Adriana Ilavská
Format: Artikel
Sprache:cze
Schlagworte:
conflict escalation
csqca
early warning
prediction
structural conditions
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:This paper introduces a method of conflict escalation prediction based on long-term structural conditions, drawn from open sources, and QCA (Qualitative Comparative analysis). The combination of the two components offers a model of prediction, which is comparable to other more sophisticated and resourced systems. Moreover, it offers a more sensitive estimation of an escalation.
ISSN:1214-6463
1802-7199
DOI:10.3849/1802-7199.20.2020.02.005-022