Global trends in the incidence rates of MDR and XDR tuberculosis: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

The study aimed to quantify the global trends of the incidence rates of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis (XDR-TB). Cases, age-standardized rates (ASRs), and incidence rates of MDR-TB and XDR-TB during 2010-2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The incidence trends of MDR-TB and XDR-TB were evaluated using the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in ASRs. The relationships among the ASRs of MDR-TB and XDR-TB, the MDR rate, the XDR rate, and socio-demographic index (SDI) were assessed using locally weighted regression and Pearson's correlation coefficient. The global ASR of MDR-TB on average decreased by 1.36% (EAPC = -1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -2.19 to -0.52) per year whereas that of XDR-TB was stable (EAPC = 0.69, 95% CI = -0.15-1.54) during 2010-2019. The incidence trends of MDR-TB in most regions and countries were decreasing, but those of XDR-TB were increasing. People aged 35-44 and 55-64 years had the highest incidence rates for MDR-TB and XDR-TB. The MDR and XDR rates both peaked in those aged 35-44 years. Areas with higher SDI tended to have lower ASRs of MDR-TB ( < 0.001, = -0.43). The current achievements for the incidence trends of MDR-TB and XDR-TB are insufficient. More strategies and tools need to be developed to further curb MDR-TB and XDR-TB, especially in high-risk areas and age groups, and in low SDI regions.