Avaliação Quase-Experimental da Descentralização Policial:O Caso da Criação das Companhias Independentes da Polícia Militar no Estado do Espírito Santo

In the 1980s/90s, new police models were consolidated, advocating for a more proactive role of professionals in their jurisdictions. They were expected to have greater interaction with the community and operate autonomously to implement preventive actions, not just repressive ones. However, there is a gap in the literature regarding empirical studies that seek to assess the impact of changes in the management arrangements of police forces, particularly in providing greater autonomy for frontline policing. In this article, we rely on an quasi-experiment, the creation of Independent Companies (CIA IND) within the Military Police in the state of Espírito Santo, which started using an independent management system from their original units (battalions). This territorial-focused approach aimed, among other factors, at reducing crime. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we assess the potential impacts of creating three Independent Companies in the cities of Vitória, Serra, and Vila Velha in March 2017 on the reduction of homicide in these regions. If the CIA IND did not exist, the data for the period between 2018 and 2021 indicate that homicide rates would have increased by 36% in Vila Velha and 18% in Serra.