Spatial pattern and mechanism of firm turnover in the Shenzhen Metropolitan Area under partial population shrinkage

[Objective] In an environment where global trade and world economic exchange continue to be hindered, the urban shrinkage in the forefront of the reform and opening up is a new issue for China's new-type urbanization. Investigating the firm turnover and spatial pattern and mechanism of impact in metropolitan areas under partial population shrinkage is of significant importance for the transition towards a paradigm of “smart shrinkage” in future urban planning. [Methods] Taking the Shenzhen Metropolitan Area as the study area and streets and towns as the objects, and with the help of GIS spatial analysis, multiple regression analysis, and typical case studies, this study identified the population shrinkage areas from 2010 to 2020, analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of industrial growth and decline within the metropolitan area as well as the driving mechanisms behind firm turnover, and explored the mechanism of the partial population shrinkage of the area. [Results] The study found that: (1) Population shrinkage occurred mainly in the towns of Huidong and Boluo, which are 80 km away from the core of the metropolitan area. (2) The overall characteristics of firm turnover in the urban areas are high entry and high exit. Areas of population shrinkage showed weaker levels of firm turnover, entry, and exit. (3) From the perspective of different industries and sectors, the degree of population shrinkage was only significantly negatively correlated with manufacturing firm turnover, and factors such as transportation, innovation, and network played a greater explanatory role in the information technology and trade industries. This suggests that shrinking areas should actively transform by relying on other production factors. (4) Different areas of shrinkage have different causes. The post-financial crisis decline of foreign trade and investment, sustained attraction of the central city to the periphery, widespread implementation of automation, and the difficulty of sustaining traditional development models have all contributed to the partial population shrinkage in the Shenzhen Metropolitan Area. [Conclusion] ​In developed metropolitan areas, population shrinkage in inner cities and the edges of central urban areas is incidental, while population shrinkage in peripheral areas of large metropolitan regions is more universal. Overcoming the negative impacts of population shrinkage and achieving “development through shrinkage” in areas on the periphery of large metro