Understanding Links Between Water Scarcity and Violent Conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin Using the Water Footprint Concept

Whilst there are several empirical studies linking water scarcity and violent conflicts, existing quantitative studies use mostly climate and environmental variables even though such variables have been shown to not be strong predictors of water conflicts by some studies. The aim of this study was to use the water footprint concept and the Falkenmark index to identify water scarcity hotspots at the sub‐national scale and to understand the links between water scarcity and violent conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin over a period of two decades (2000–2021). We achieve this by developing five water scarcity metrics at a monthly timescale using runoff, soil moisture, potential evapotranspiration, water consumption and demographic data. The developed metrics show high levels of water scarcity across the study area during the dry, pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons. Analyses further reveal high green water scarcity (GWS) (soil moisture deficit) and low Falkenmark index scores (water stress) during the dry, pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons, across all reported water conflict locations. This suggest that there is an indirect link between GWS, the Falkenmark index scores and water conflicts. Results from this study may be used to enhance water management, mitigate, and prevent water conflicts in the study area and likewise the methodology adopted may be used to address water scarcity and conflicts in other regions. Plain Language Summary According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, climate change is expected to increase the prevalence of conflicts across the world due to resources scarcity. The situation is expected to be exacerbated in regions with high population density, low socio‐economic development, and high dependence on agriculture. Even though resources scarcity and conflict remain a topical issue within research and development arenas, establishing the direct link between the two has remained problematic. This may probably be due to a lack of an integrated approach to address this issue in a transparent way. Using an integrated approach involving several water scarcity metrics, this study shows that water conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin are closely related to soil moisture deficit and population‐driven water scarcity during different seasons of a calendar year. By developing different water scarcity metrics at the sub‐national and seasonal scales, we have a clearer understanding of which water scarcity metrics are closely linked