The analysis of individual Visegrad group members' agrarian export sensitivity in relation to selected macroeconomic aggregations

This paper analyzes the development of agricultural trade of the countries of the Visegrad Group with emphasis on development of the value of agricultural exports of the individual countries. The subject matter of the analysis is the sensitivity of the commodity structure of agricultural exports of individual countries and the identification of aggregations that are the least and the most sensitive to changes to the external and internal economic environment. From the conducted research, agricultural trade in the V4 countries was found to have developed very dynamically from 1993 to 2008, while the commodity structure of exports has constantly narrowed as the degree of specialization of the individual countries has increased (this applies especially to the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary). From the results of analysis of sensitivity to changes of selected variables relating to the development of the value of agricultural exports of the individual V4 countries, it appears that the aggregations that react most sensitively to changes are those that are the subject of re-exports, followed by the aggregations that are characterized by a high degree of added value. In general it can be said that products of agricultural primary production exhibit less sensitivity in comparison with grocery industry products. This is confirmed by the general trend arising from the very nature of consumer behaviour.