An improved urban cellular automata model by using the trend-adjusted neighborhood

Background Cellular automata (CA)-based models have been extensively used in urban sprawl modeling. Presently, most studies focused on the improvement of spatial representation in the modeling, with limited efforts for considering the temporal context of urban sprawl. In this paper, we developed a Logistic-Trend-CA model by proposing a trend-adjusted neighborhood as a weighting factor using the information of historical urban sprawl and integrating this factor in the commonly used Logistic-CA model. We applied the developed model in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China and analyzed the model performance to the start year, the suitability surface, and the neighborhood size. Results Our results indicate the proposed Logistic-Trend-CA model outperforms the traditional Logistic-CA model significantly, resulting in about 18% and 14% improvements in modeling urban sprawl at medium (1 km) and fine (30 m) resolutions, respectively. The proposed Logistic-Trend-CA model is more suitable for urban sprawl modeling over a long temporal interval than the traditional Logistic-CA model. In addition, this new model is not sensitive to the suitability surface calibrated from different periods and spaces, and its performance decreases with the increase of the neighborhood size. Conclusion The proposed model shows potential for modeling future urban sprawl spanning a long period at regional and global scales.