Climate influence on the distribution of the yellow plum (Ximenia Americana L.) in Burkina Faso

Yellow plum (Ximenia americana L.) is an indigenous and multipurpose tree species widely used in West Africa and especially in Burkina Faso. Most of the species’ organs are mainly used for traditional medicine in rural communities. Despite its high use value, little is known about the species distribution pattern. This study aims to assess the potential impacts of climate conditions on the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for X. americana in Burkina Faso. We used occurrence data of the species combined with six least-correlated bioclimatic variables derived from the WorldClim database. MaxEnt was used in combination with a Geographic Information System to predict forecast current and future (horizon 2070) suitable habitats distribution for the conservation of the species. For future predictions, two climatic scenarios, representative concentration pathway (RCP): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and one global climate model (MPI-ESM-MR) were used. Results showed that annual precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and minimum temperature of the coldest month are the most important predictors that drive the distribution of the species. About 169,399 km2, corresponding to 62% of Burkina Faso total land area, are currently suitable for the conservation of X. americana. Under future climate projections, the area suitable for the conservation of the species was projected to decrease by 15% (RCP 4.5) and 25% (RCP 8.5). These findings call for smart and sustainable management of the country's plant species resources.