Modeling and Forecasting of Economic Development Processes in Conditions of Dynamic Changes of External Environment

The article is aimed at building the functions of forecasting the indicators of economic development of production, represented by time series. Modeling of changes of financial-economic indicators of production in short and medium-term perspectives is considered. The methodology of detection of anomalies of a time series together with significance of their influence on values of the basic characteristics of a time series is provided. It is substantiated, that forecasting of processes of economic development of enterprises is most optimally executed by means of polynomial quadratic approximation. Use of the proposed approach allows to exclude subjectivity of expert estimation and to increase accuracy and reliability of forecasts. The prospect of further researches in this direction is comparison of real production data of financial-economic indicators of dynamic series with the calculated trends and adaptation to current conditions. Further development of modeling and forecasting of processes of economic development implements the process of constant updating of the model depending on influences of surrounding factors, bringing closer the characteristics of mathematical model to real data.