Absolute lymphocyte count predicts efficacy of palbociclib in patients with metastatic luminal breast cancer

Absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) is a predictive and prognostic factor for various tumor types, including breast cancer. Palbociclib is a CDK4/6 inhibitor widely used for the treatment of metastatic estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. However, predictive biomarkers of the efficacy of palbociclib remain unelucidated. We conducted a retrospective study to examine the predictive value of the baseline ALC in patients treated with palbociclib. The medical records of patients with ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer treated with palbociclib plus hormonal therapy between December 2017 and December 2021 were analyzed retrospectively. The cutoff value of ALC was set at 1800 cells/μL at the initiation of palbociclib treatment. The clinical benefit rate (CBR) was defined as the rate of complete or partial response or stable disease for at least 6 months. Progression-free survival (PFS) rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression. All of the 202 patients were women, with a median age of 59 years and a performance status (PS) of ≤ 2. The median numbers of lines of chemotherapy and endocrine therapy before palbociclib treatment were 0 (range, 0-9) and 1 (range, 0-7), respectively. Fifty-one patients had liver metastases. Forty-six patients tested negative for progesterone receptor (PgR) expression. The median follow-up time was 9.1 months. The CBR was significantly higher in the ALC-high group than in the ALC-low group (79% vs. 60%; P = 0.018). The median PFS was significantly longer in the ALC-high group than in the ALC-low group (26.8 months vs. 8.4 moths, respectively; P = 0.000013). ALC, age, PS, PgR status, prior chemotherapy, prior endocrine therapy, and liver metastasis were entered into the multivariate analysis. ALC was identified as an independent factor for PFS (P = 0.00085), along with liver metastasis (P = 0.0020), PS (P = 0.026), and prior endocrine therapy (P = 0.019). ALC can serve as a predictor of palbociclib efficacy in patients with metastatic ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer.