Migration as a factor in formation of the demographic potential of rural areas of the central black earth region

The article studies migration as one of the factors in the formation of the demographic potential of rural areas. The purpose of the article is to identify key trends in migration processes occurring in rural areas of the regions of the Central Black Earth Economic Region, and to determine their impact on the demographic potential of rural areas. The empirical basis of the article was statistical data characterizing the migration movement of the population of rural areas of five regions of the Central Black Earth Economic Region, as well as the results of a series of semiformalized interviews (September-October 2019, N = 50 respondents) conducted as part of the research project “Mental Inequalities as a Factor of Social Polarization of the Russian Province”. The analysis of statistical data made it possible to conclude that the migration attractiveness of rural areas in most regions of the Central Black Earth Region is quite high. However, optimism about the migration attractiveness of rural areas of the Central Black Earth Region and the positive role of migration processes in the formation and implementation of the demographic potential of rural areas is premature. First, the migration inflow to rural areas of the central black earth regions is quite differentiated. There are leading regions and outsiders. Second, the gender imbalance of the migration process indicates the predominance of the “non-family” nature of migration, which means that it has an unstable impact on the demographic potential of rural areas. Third, it can be assumed that even in the case of a positive balance of migration, the human potential of the rural areas of the regions of the Central Black Earth Region may deteriorate. Currently, the migration inflow has a pronounced gender imbalance and does not compensate for the natural decline in the population. Rural areas are mainly viewed by their inhabitants as less advantageous in terms of achieving success in life, the direct and indirect effects of which is the deterioration of the quality of the human potential of rural areas. In the best case, migration processes at the moment make it possible to reduce the intensity of the devaluation of the demographic potential of rural areas, and even then not in all regions of the Central Black Earth Region.