The influence of psychological traits and prior experience on treatment expectations

Placebo and nocebo responses are modulated by the treatment expectations of participants and patients. However, interindividual differences predicting treatment expectations and placebo responses are unclear. In this large-scale pooled analysis, we aim to investigate the influence of psychological traits and prior experiences on treatment expectations. This paper analyses data from six different placebo studies (total n = 748). In all studies, participants' sociodemographic information, treatment expectations and prior treatment experiences and traits relating to stress, somatization, depression and anxiety, the Big Five and behavioral inhibition and approach tendencies were assessed using the same established questionnaires. Correlation coefficients and structural equation models were calculated to investigate the relationship between trait variables and expectations. We found small positive correlations between side effect expectations and improvement expectations (r = 0.187), perceived stress (r = 0.154), somatization (r = 0.115), agitation (r = 0.108), anhedonia (r = 0.118), and dysthymia (r = 0.118). In the structural equation model previous experiences emerged as the strongest predictors of improvement (β = 0.32, p = .005), worsening (β = −0.24, p = .005) and side effect expectations (β = 0.47, p = .005). Traits related to positive affect (β = − 0.09; p = .007) and negative affect (β = 0.04; p = .014) were associated with side effect expectations. This study is the first large analysis to investigate the relationship between traits, prior experiences and treatment expectations. Exploratory analyses indicate that experiences of symptom improvement are associated with improvement and worsening expectations, while previous negative experiences are only related to side effect expectations. Additionally, a proneness to experience negative affect may be a predictor for side effect expectation and thus mediate the occurrence of nocebo responses. •‘No pain, no gain’: Positive and negative expectations are positively correlated.•Higher negative affect is associated with increased side effect expectations.•Previous treatment experiences are strong determinants of treatment expectations.