Causal decoding of individual cortical excitability states

•Fluctuating cortical excitability state can be estimated from ongoing EEG.•Individual spatio-temporal classification filters are derived from EEG−TMS−EMG data.•Supervised learning combines multiple sources and frequencies without priors.•Estimation accuracy improves compared to the standard fixed-spatial-filter approach.•This method has applications in personalized brain-state-dependent brain-stimulation. Brain responsiveness to stimulation fluctuates with rapidly shifting cortical excitability state, as reflected by oscillations in the electroencephalogram (EEG). For example, the amplitude of motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) elicited by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) of motor cortex changes from trial to trial. To date, individual estimation of the cortical processes leading to this excitability fluctuation has not been possible. Here, we propose a data-driven method to derive individually optimized EEG classifiers in healthy humans using a supervised learning approach that relates pre-TMS EEG activity dynamics to MEP amplitude. Our approach enables considering multiple brain regions and frequency bands, without defining them a priori, whose compound phase-pattern information determines the excitability. The individualized classifier leads to an increased classification accuracy of cortical excitability states from 57% to 67% when compared to μ-oscillation phase extracted by standard fixed spatial filters. Results show that, for the used TMS protocol, excitability fluctuates predominantly in the μ-oscillation range, and relevant cortical areas cluster around the stimulated motor cortex, but between subjects there is variability in relevant power spectra, phases, and cortical regions. This novel decoding method allows causal investigation of the cortical excitability state, which is critical also for individualizing therapeutic brain stimulation.