Stochastic model and GIS spatial analysis of the coal mine subsidence

The occurrence of subsidence caused by the underground coal mining may be a complex process that causes damage to the environment. In the last century, there was a significant development in prediction methods for calculating the surface subsidence. In this paper, a new prediction method has been developed to calculate subsidence by combining a stochastic model of the ground movements and Geographical Information System (GIS). All the subsidence calculations are implemented by an original program package MITSOUKO, where the components of the GIS are used to fulfil the spatial analysis. This subsidence prediction technique has been applied to calculate the ground movements resulting from excavating 21 mining panels that are mined successively in the coal mine ''Rembas''-Resavica, Serbia. Details of movement were sequentially predicted and simulated in terms of years exploitation. Predictive calculation of the undermined terrain displacement parameters by the stochastic method and integration into the GIS is a powerful risk management tool.