IS ESTONIAN TRANSIT SECTOR IN TROUBLE AFTER THE EU ACCESSION AND SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA? A QUALITATIVE STUDY OF TRANSIT FLOWS

The article investigates the reasons why transit flows have been volatile in Estonia during 2000-2018. Based on academic literature, the authors identify the following potential factors: the effect of the EU accession, EU-Russian economic sanctions; changes in the transit volume of oil products; changes in local infrastructure in Estonia; dynamics of political and economic relations with Russia; changes in market demand and Estonia’s inability to react and adjust to global trends; the development plan of Russian ports; dynamics of railway infrastructure charges in Estonia; unilateral nature of Estonia’s transit flows; changes in competitiveness of the Estonian transit sector; changes in container transit in Estonia, and changes in the value added in the transit corridor of Estonia. To assess the impact of these factors, a qualitative survey was conducted among the companies operating in the Estonian transit sector and the local experts in transit-related issues. The survey shows that next to Russia’s influence, other factors have also played a significant role. These are, e.g., the reorientation/restructuration of the Estonian transit sector, the impact of potential changes in local infrastructure, and the inability to identify long-term consequences of various policy measures imposed by its neighbours, or to estimate the outcome of other measures, such as the EU-Russian sanctions imposed during the Ukrainian conflict.