The Impact of Payments for Environmental Services in the Atlantic Forest: A Geospatial Study

ABSTRACT Objective: this study aimed at understanding the impact of payment for environmental services (PES) programs in relation to environmental indicators in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biome. Theoretical approach: the literary framework included three topics of discussion: payment for environmental services, program evaluation, and theory of change. In a broader way, the theme of evaluating programs in the agricultural area was articulated, considering the precepts of the theory of change. Method: geospatial data on land use, between 2016 and 2021, and amounts paid under the PES program with rural producers were collected to evaluate the impact on the increase or decrease in degraded and recovered areas. Data analysis included multivariate statistics, more specifically the comparison between groups and the relationship between variables through multiple linear regression. Results: the empirical results highlight that there is a significant difference in the increase in areas under recovery between producers who received PES values and producers not participating in this program. As for the types of PES, the one that pays for improvements in land use contributed most to the increase in the area under recovery. Conclusions: the study shows that evaluation methods for PES must be increasingly complex and measurable, as there are several possibilities for impacts depending on the objective of the program. The results are relevant to the theoretical, practical, and social spheres, in addition to helping to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). RESUMO Objetivo: este estudo buscou compreender o impacto dos programas de pagamento por serviços ambientais (PSA) em relação aos indicadores ambientais no bioma da Mata Atlântica brasileira. Marco téorico: o arcabouço literário contemplou três tópicos de discussão: pagamento por serviços ambientais, avaliação de programas e teoria da mudança. De maneira geral, articulou-se a temática da avaliação de programas na área agrícola, considerando os preceitos da teoria da mudança. Método: dados geoespaciais de uso de solo, entre 2016 e 2021, e de valores pagos em programa de PSA junto a produtores rurais, foram coletados para avaliar o impacto no aumento ou diminuição de áreas degradadas e recuperadas. A análise de dados contemplou a estatística multivariada, mais especificamente da comparação entre grupos e da relação entre variáveis através da regressão linear múltipla. Resultados: os resultados empíricos de