Forecasting the Particle Diameter Size Distribution in P92 (X10CrWMoVNb9-2) Steel After Long-Term Ageing at 600 and 650 °C

The investigations on microstructure of P92 steel in the as-received condition and after 10 h ageing at 600 and 650 °C were carried out. For the recorded images of microstructure, the quantitative analysis of precipitates was performed. On that basis, a statistical analysis of collected data was made with the aim of estimating parameters of selected theoretical statistical distribution. Then, the forecast for average precipitate diameter and standard deviation of such a distribution for the time of 1,5*10 h at 600 and 650 °C was calculated. The obtained results of investigations confirm the possibility of using, in evaluation of degradation degree for materials in use, the forecasting methods derived from mathematical statistics, in particular the theory of stochastic processes and methods of forecasting by analogy.