Predicting Suitable Habitats for China’s Endangered Plant Handeliodendron bodinieri (H. Lév.) Rehder

Demarcating a plant species’ actual and potential biogeographical distribution is crucial for understanding the key environmental variables shaping its habitat conditions. We used MaxEnt and species distribution modeling to predict the likely range of China’s endangered species, Handeliodendron bodinieri (H. Lév.) Rehder, based on forty-four validated distribution records and eight selected environmental variables. Combined with percentage contribution and permutation importance, the jackknife statistical method was applied to test and evaluate pertinent factors restricting the potential distribution of H. bodinieri. The response curves of critical bioclimatic factors were employed to determine the potential species range. The generated MaxEnt model was confirmed to have excellent simulation accuracy. The current core potential distribution areas are concentrated in the Guangxi and Guizhou provinces of Southwest China, with a significant inter-regional difference. The precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18) and minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) had the greatest impact on the distribution area of H. bodinieri. The findings could provide useful information and a reasonable reference for managers to enhance the protection of this declining species.