Sub-city Scale Hourly Air Quality Forecasting by Combining Models, Satellite Observations, and Ground Measurements

While multiple information sources exist concerning surface-level air pollution, no individual source simultaneously provides large-scale spatial coverage, fine spatial and temporal resolution, and high accuracy. It is, therefore, necessary to integrate multiple data sources, using the strengths of each source to compensate for the weaknesses of others. In this study, we propose a method incorporating outputs of NASA’s GEOS Composition Forecasting model system with satellite information from the TROPOMI instrument and ground measurement data on surface concentrations. Although we use ground monitoring data from the Environmental Protection Agency network in the continental United States, the model and satellite data sources used have the potential to allow for global application. This method is demonstrated using surface measurements of nitrogen dioxide as a test case in regions surrounding five major US cities. The proposed method is assessed through cross-validation against withheld ground monitoring sites. In these assessments, the proposed method demonstrates major improvements over two baseline approaches which use ground-based measurements only. Results also indicate the potential for near-term updating of forecasts based on recent ground measurements.