An Improved CASA Model for Estimating Winter Wheat Yield from Remote Sensing Images

The accurate and timely monitoring and evaluation of the regional grain crop yield is more significant for formulating import and export plans of agricultural products, regulating grain markets and adjusting the planting structure. In this study, an improved Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model was coupled with time-series satellite remote sensing images to estimate winter wheat yield. Firstly, in 2009 the entire growing season of winter wheat in the two districts of Tongzhou and Shunyi of Beijing was divided into 54 stages at five-day intervals. Net Primary Production (NPP) of winter wheat was estimated by the improved CASA model with HJ-1A/B satellite images from 39 transits. For the 15 stages without HJ-1A/B transit, MOD17A2H data products were interpolated to obtain the spatial distribution of winter wheat NPP at 5-day intervals over the entire growing season of winter wheat. Then, an NPP-yield conversion model was utilized to estimate winter wheat yield in the study area. Finally, the accuracy of the method to estimate winter wheat yield with remote sensing images was verified by comparing its results to the ground-measured yield. The results showed that the estimated yield of winter wheat based on remote sensing images is consistent with the ground-measured yield, with R2 of 0.56, RMSE of 1.22 t ha−1, and an average relative error of −6.01%. Based on time-series satellite remote sensing images, the improved CASA model can be used to estimate the NPP and thereby the yield of regional winter wheat. This approach satisfies the accuracy requirements for estimating regional winter wheat yield and thus may be used in actual applications. It also provides a technical reference for estimating large-scale crop yield.