Tracing the Origin, Spread, and Molecular Evolution of Dengue Type 1 Cases That Occurred in Northern Italy in 2023

The dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus endemic to many tropical and subtropical regions. Over the past few decades, the global incidence of dengue has risen dramatically, with the virus now present in over 100 countries, putting nearly half of the world's population at risk. This increase is attributed to several factors, including urbanization, climate change, and global travel, which facilitate the spread of both the virus and its mosquito vectors. While dengue is primarily associated with tropical regions, outbreaks in temperate areas are becoming increasingly common due to the spread of , a competent vector for DENV that can adapt to cooler climates. This study investigates the molecular dynamics and geographic evolution of DENV type 1 (DENV-1) strains isolated from 13 patients during an autochthonous outbreak in Lombardy, Northern Italy, between August and September 2023. Additionally, mosquitoes were collected from a neighboring area to assess their potential role in the outbreak. A metagenomic approach was used to recover DENV-1 consensus sequences from clinical samples. Genotype classification and phylogenetic analyses were performed using Bayesian methods and a comprehensive dataset of DENV-1 sequences from other countries. The Italian autochthonous strains clustered with South American strains collected between 2020 and 2023, specifically those belonging to genotype V, subtype D. Bayesian analysis estimated a mean evolutionary substitution rate of 8.234 × 10 substitutions per site per year (95% HPD interval: 7.1448 × 10 -9.3343 × 10 ), with the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) dating back to 1972 (95% HPD interval: 1968-1976). These findings suggest the likely introduction of the virus into the region from endemic areas in South America, followed by local transmission. This study offers valuable insights into the dynamics of the DENV-1 outbreak in Lombardy, underscoring the importance of genomic surveillance in monitoring viral spread and evolution. The findings emphasize the critical need for enhanced molecular and entomological surveillance to detect and respond to emerging autochthonous DENV cases in temperate regions where competent vectors, such as , are present. Public health strategies should prioritize integrated vector management, real-time genomic monitoring, and awareness campaigns to mitigate the risk of future outbreaks. These measures are essential to address the growing threat posed by the geographic