Carbon-neutrality-transformation pathway in ecoregions: An empirical study of Chongming District, Shanghai, China

•Develop a CEs and CS forecasting framework to simulate the carbon neutrality transformation pathways.•Conduct detailed regional accounting of CEs and CS, alongside carbon neutrality assessments.•Implement strong sustainability measures to achieve regional carbon neutrality transformations. In the context of global efforts to address climate change, research into regional carbon neutrality strategies has become especially critical. For developing countries and regions, it is essential to scientifically and rationally assessing the paths for small-scale regional transformations under carbon neutrality imperatives to effectively implement low-carbon transition measures. This study utilizes Chongming District in Shanghai of China as a case to establish a framework for forecasting carbon emission and sink from a multi-dimensional natural-social perspective. This facilitates the simulation and optimization of pathways for carbon neutrality transformation. The results indicate: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the total regional carbon emission exhibited a rising trend, while the total carbon sink initially declined then increased, indicating potential enhancement zone with significant potential and space for carbon neutrality development. (2) Enhanced management of ecological spaces and land use planning result in notable increases in carbon sink. Strategic measures such as emission and consumption reductions, alongside energy transitions, effectively controlled carbon emission growth and facilitated comprehensive decarbonization. (3) By combining ecological priority with enhanced control and balanced development with enhanced control, the region can achieve carbon neutrality. This showcases the effective role of policy regulation in facilitating high-quality carbon–neutral transformations. (4) Effective ecosystem management along with robust reduction and transition strategies enable county-level carbon–neutral transformations, offering a model and methodological support for other developing regions facing the twin challenges of economic growth and environmental sustainability.