Research on the Spatial-Temporal Variation of Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity and the Impact of Supply-Side Reform on Them: Evidence from Provincial-Level Data in China

Both the resource environmental carrying capacity (RECC) and supply-side reform are crucial for achieving sustainable national developments. However, current research on RECC lacks consideration of the supply-side industrial structures and factors, and the relationship between RECC and supply-side reform remains unrevealed. In order to measure the RECC in China at the provincial level from 2005 to 2019, this study constructs an evaluation index based on industrial structure. It utilizes the TOPSIS model coupled with the supply-demand balance method and environmental capacity method while gathering and summarizing the indicators related to natural resource support, socio-economic support, and environmental factor accommodation. The analysis of evolutionary characteristics and spatial heterogeneity is carried out by statistical and spatial econometric methods, and the impact of the supply-side reform policy on RECC is examined using a bidirectional fixed-effect model. The findings indicate the following: (1) China’s RECC demonstrates a clear upward trend, with higher values in the west and lower values in the east. The average annual growth rate from 2016 to 2019 (18.12%) is nearly three times that of the period from 2005 to 2010 (6.28%), indicating a significant acceleration in the increase in RECC post-supply-side reform. (2) The spatial agglomeration of RECC and its sub-system support is observed, as the allocation of nature resources and markets promotes the convergence of regional differences and enhances the spatial convergence of the RECC. (3) The implementation of supply-side reform policies has a positive impact on RECC, with industrial upgrading playing a particularly significant role. This study provides a new idea and method for the selection of evaluation indicators, quantitatively assessing province-level RECC and understanding the potential effects of national supply-side policies on RECC.