IL-10 predicts incident neuroinflammatory disease and proviral load dynamics in a large Brazilian cohort of people living with human T-lymphotropic virus type 1

Human T-Lymphotropic Virus type-1 (HTLV-1) is a unique retrovirus associated with both leukemogenesis and a specific neuroinflammatory condition known as HTLV-1-Associated Myelopathy (HAM). Currently, most proposed HAM biomarkers require invasive CSF sampling, which is not suitable for large cohorts or repeated prospective screening. To identify non-invasive biomarkers for incident HAM in a large Brazilian cohort of PLwHTLV-1 (n=615 with 6,673 person-years of clinical follow-up), we selected all plasma samples available at the time of entry in the cohort (between 1997-2019), in which up to 43 cytokines/chemokines and immune mediators were measured. Thus, we selected 110 People Living with HTLV-1 (PLwHTLV-1), of which 68 were neurologically asymptomatic (AS) at baseline and 42 HAM patients. Nine incident HAM cases were identified among 68 AS during follow-up. Using multivariate logistic regression, we found that lower IL-10, IL-4 and female sex were independent predictors of clinical progression to definite HAM (AUROC 0.91), and outperformed previously suggested biomarkers age, sex and proviral load (AUROC 0.77). Moreover, baseline IL-10 significantly predicted proviral load dynamics at follow-up in all PLwHTLV-1. In an exploratory analysis, we identified additional plasma biomarkers which were able to discriminate iHAM from either AS (IL6Rα, IL-27) or HAM (IL-29/IFN-λ1, Osteopontin, and TNFR2). In conclusion, female sex and low anti-inflammatory IL-10 and IL-4 are independent risk factors for incident HAM in PLwHTLV-1,while proviral load is not, in agreement with IL-10 being upstream of proviral load dynamics. Additional candidate biomarkers IL-29/IL-6R/TNFR2 represent plausible therapeutic targets for future clinical trials in HAM patients.