Simulaciones numéricas de la evolución reciente y futura del glaciar Monte Perdido

Glaciers are globally retreating due to climate change, and the Pyrenees Mountain range is no exception. This study uses the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to explore the dynamics of the Monte Perdido glacier, one of the largest remaining glaciers in the Pyrenees. We explored three calibration approaches to assess their performances when reproducing observed volume decreases. The first approach involved mass balance calibration using terrestrial laser scanning data from 2011 to 2022 and climate data from a nearby weather station. The second approach used terrestrial laser scanning calibration with default climate data provided by OGGM (GSWP3-W5E5). The third approach used default geodetic mass balance calibration and default climate data. By comparing these calibration strategies and analysing historical data (terrestrial laser scanning and ground penetrating radar), we obtain insights of the applicability of OGGM to this small, mild conditions, Pyrenean glacier. The first calibration approach is identified as the most effective, emphasising the importance of selecting appropriate climate data and calibration methods. Additionally, we conducted future volume projections using an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicate a potential decrease in total ice volume ranging from 91.60% to 95.16% by 2100, depending on the scenario. Overall, this study contributes to the understanding of the Monte Perdido glacier’s behaviour and its response to climate change through the calibration of the OGGM, while also providing the first estimate of its future melting under different emission scenarios. Los glaciares están retrocediendo globalmente debido al cambio climático, y la cordillera de los Pirineos no es una excepción. Este estudio utiliza el modelo Open Global Glacier (OGGM) para explorar la dinámica del glaciar Monte Perdido, uno de los glaciares actuales de mayor tamaño de los Pirineos. Se exploran tres enfoques de calibración para evaluar sus rendimientos al reproducir las disminuciones de volumen observadas. El primer enfoque consistió en calibrar el balance de masas utilizando datos de escaneo láser terrestre de 2011 a 2022 y datos climáticos de una estación meteorológica cercana. El segundo enfoque utilizó la calibración de escaneo láser terrestre con datos climáticos predeterminados proporcionados por OGGM (GSWP3-W5E5). El tercer enfoque manejó la calibración geodésica predeterminada del balanc