DINAMICA NO MERCADO DE ARROZ DO MERCOSUL: ANALISE DA CAUSALIDADE DE PRECOS E INTEGRACAO COM O MERCADO INTERNACIONAL

The Mercosur creation has motivated a fast economic integration in the rice chain among country-members, at the same time that Brazil became a net importer from Uruguay and Argentina, which in turn has promoted their industry and farming developments. However, recently, Brazil has been reducing imports and increasing rice exports while Argentina and Uruguay have been establishing new trade partnerships outside South America, and Mercosur emerges as a potential world rice supplier. This study attempts to understanding the dynamics of intra and extra regional trade flows analyzing domestic, regional and international prices relationships. To achieve these goals, the Johansen cointegration and the Granger causality tests were applied to the period from 1997 to 2013. Results suggest the existence of price integration and intra-regional bi-causality, and also domestic prices responses to shifts in international prices. These indicate that rice growers, processors and traders, as well as government, should take into consideration international rice prices movements and forecasts before their decisions regarding planting, storing and trading, as the designation of supporting agricultural policies for the whole production chain. Key words: Causality, cointegration, extra regional trade, intraregional trade, Mercosur, prices, rice A criacao do Mercosul estimulou uma rapida integracao economica da cadeia orizicola entre os seus paises membros, sendo que o Brasil tornou-seum importador liquido do arroz oriundo da Argentina e Uruguai, impulsionando o desenvolvimento desse setor nos paises em questao. Em safras recentes, entretanto, as importacoes brasileiras diminuiram concomitantemente a um aumento de suas exportacoes de arroz de qualidade. Simultaneamente, Argentina e Uruguai estabeleceram novos parceiros comerciais fora da America do Sul. Com isso, o Mercosul emerge como um potencial mercado exportador mundial. De forma a compreender a dinamica dos fluxos comerciais intra-regionais e com o resto do mundo, o presente trabalho buscou realizar inferencias sobre a relacao entre precos domesticos de arroz dos paises do Bloco e destes com os precos internacionais. Para isso, aplicou-se o teste de cointegracao de Johansen e o de causalidade de Granger, para o periodo de 1997 a 2013. Os resultados indicaram integracao e bi-causalidade entre os precos intra-bloco. Verificou-se,ainda, que os precos domesticos reagiram a flutuacoes nos precos de referencia internacionais. Tai