Redefined fundamental uncertainty, fiscal rules, fiscal net, fiscal sustainability and emerging markets scenarios
Sustaining initial blows of the crisis of late 2000's, emerging markets may now be operating in the perfect storm environment pulling into single totality problems of adequate fiscal balance, capital flows, exchange rate volatility, foreign currency denominated debt, industrial development, and...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Aestimatio (Madrid) 2012-01 (5), p.126-161 |
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Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | Sustaining initial blows of the crisis of late 2000's, emerging markets may now be operating in the perfect storm environment pulling into single totality problems of adequate fiscal balance, capital flows, exchange rate volatility, foreign currency denominated debt, industrial development, and social balance. In this environment, the fiscal state assumes a stabilizing role counterbalanced by limited financial capacity. To the extent relevant on the global scale this paper develops bare-bones analytical fiscal policy rules model under uncertainty, optimized for a controlled fiscal revenue mix via superfund, with preexisting social commitments and economic priorities. The paper advances a concept of redefined fundamental uncertainty as characteristic feature of the post-crisis economy with concerns over growth sustainability. Hypothetical post-crisis scenarios based on nonlinear model predictive control algorithms are reviewed and fiscal net framework is conceptualized as analytical proxy stability measure. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] |
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ISSN: | 2173-0164 2173-1926 |